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    AUD/USD risks falling under 100-day SMA

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "The dollar has further weakness to come. Yellen's speech today will be very important. We think the message from her will be the Fed is worried about the data and, being a central bank that is data-dependent, the backdrop of the U.S. economy is not strong enough to deliver rate hikes any time soon." 
    - BNP Paribas SA (based on Bloomberg)


    Pair's Outlook 
    The Aussie skyrocketed against the US Dollar on Friday, being led by the weaker-than-anticipated US NFP reading. As a result, the pair not only climbed over the 200-day SMA, but also surged over the 100-day SMA, ultimately closing at 0.7368. The Australian Dollar is now most likely to weaken, as investors are eager to take profit after Friday's rally. Furthermore, the RBA's cash rate decision looms closer, which is likely to have an impact on the AUD/USD pair's exchange rate. Although the Aussie is now supported by the 100-day SMA and the monthly PPs, the bearish development is expected to prevail. On the other hand, mixed technical studies suggest that a rebound towards 0.7420 is possible. 

    Traders' Sentiment
    Today 68% of all open positions are long, compared to 65% last Friday, while the share of purchase orders increased from 60 to 69%.
    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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