On Monday EUR/USD has retraced 38.2% of Friday’s decline, but met resistance around 1.0900. There’s bullish divergence on the daily chart and the euro looks oversold. However, the market’s sentiment about the euro is still negative, so corrections up will likely be shallow. Resistance is at 1.0925, 1.0950 and 1.1000 and the euro is to be sold on rallies. Support lies at 1.0800, 1.0760 (Sept. 2003 low) and 1.0558 (April 2003 low).
Markets are looking forwards to the news from Greece which so far isn’t inspiring. Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that the nation could be forced into fresh elections or a referendum if euro zone finance ministers reject its plans to ease austerity. The head of European Commission Juncker and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will meet on Friday.
USD/JPY is now using previous resistance at 120.50 as support. Further support is at 119.80. Japanese economic growth was revised to the downside. On the upside the next target is at 121.85. Buying on the dips is the strategy.
AUD/USD hovers around its 6-year lows of 0.7720, testing the 200-month MA to the downside. The pair awaits another bearish impulse to speed the downside up. Next support will be seen at 0.7630/00. Tonight watch the NAB Business Confidence figures in Australia. What’s more, China will publish inflation figures tonight – producer prices will likely stay in their deep zero.
GBP/USD has recovered some ground on Monday, but holds below the 1.5100 mark following the sharp selloff on Friday. Technical picture turned clearly bearish as the pair closed the past week below 1.5200. Support lies at 1.5030/00 and 1.4950. On Tuesday the BOE Governor Carney will hold a speech at 14:35 GMT in London.