The week of the central banks has begun. Risk sentiment was rather good as figures from China released during the weekend weren’t too bad. At the same time, traders remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday and the Bank of England’s announcement on Thursday. The Fed’s meeting is an especially important factor for the Forex market. The US will release retail sales and PPI at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday. The forecast is negative.
Oil prices retreated from the recent highs provoking correction in commodity currencies. NZD/USD is the most vulnerable to the downside with support is at 0.6640. Overbought AUD/USD is moving down to 0.7500/0.7450 before resuming growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy meeting minutes. As the recent meeting was more hawkish, the publication could give positive impulse to Aussie.
EUR/USD dipped to 1.1100 on Monday. Next support is at 1.1050 (100-day MA). However, after last week’s growth the general outlook remains bullish. Above 1.1165 upside targets are at 1.1250 and 1.1300.
GBP/USD met resistance of the short-term bullish channel. Below 1.4350 it will slide to 1.4250. Next support is at 1.4215. Resistance is at 1.4435 and 1.4480. There will be no important news from the UK until jobs data on Wednesday (this release may offer bullish opportunity for the pound).
The Bank of Japan’s meeting is the main factor for USD/JPY. According to our main scenario, the Bank of Japan won’t ease its policy, and the yen will strengthen. The pair is vulnerable for decline to 113.00/112.60.