Last week US dollar corrected to the upside. Growth in the US core personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index slowed down from 0.3% in January to 0.1% in February, data showed on Monday. Weak data reduce the odds that the Federal Reserve will increase rates soon and is negative for the US dollar. On Tuesday the US will release CB consumer confidence figures at 14:00 GMT. The Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak at 15:30 GMT.
European markets will reopen on Tuesday after the Easter holidays. EUR/USD has support at 1.1145 and may recover to 1.1220 in the absence of important data from the euro area. Next resistance is at 1.1240 and 1.1260. GBP/USD is trying to recover last week’s decline. Above 1.4285 it will be able to recover to 1.4350. Nothing in the UK economic calendar on Tuesday. EUR/GBP looks vulnerable for a decline to 0.7800. USD/JPY has been rising for 7 days in a row and is now vulnerable for correction to 113.00/112.50. Japan will release retail sales data, the forecast is optimistic.
Commodity currencies were supported by higher oil prices. NZD/USD made the biggest gains on Monday with potential to form daily bullish engulfing and rise to 0.6775. AUD/USD may rise to 0.7600.