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    Fundamental analysis 02.06.201602.06.2016

    June 2, 2016 - 10:43am

    Today, June 2, will be very hard for investors. The whole set of major statements will result in volatility of all the markets. The key intrigue of the day is the OPEC’s session. During the hot discussions the oil price can change much by the end of the current trading session yet. The main intrigue will be the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia on the oil production freezing. It is due to that issue the previous negotiations were wrecked. In case of making that agreement the oil price can surpass $ 50 per barrel and fix at that level to $ 55, otherwise another pullback to $ 40 is possible.

    In addition, at 18:00 (Moscow) the data on the oil reserves in the USA will be released. The increase in the reserves can further destabilize the market situation which is precarious enough as it is.

    The currency market volatility will be higher as from 14:45 (Moscow). At this time the interest rate decision by the ECB will be released. Then at 15:15 (Moscow) the US labor market data will be released by the ADP agency. Before the traders finish speculations in USD, the press-conference with Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, will start at 15:30 (Moscow). His speech on the inflation growth rate and economic development outlook can “shatter” euro for 100 – 150 points.

    At 17:45 (Moscow) the press-conference baton will be taken by the Bank of Canada. During his speech Stephen Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, will express his view of the Canadian economic outlook.

    By the market close the “stock exchange calm” will be contributed by the US FED. At 18:30 (Moscow) the press-conference will start with William Dudley, the member of FOMC, to be followed at 20:00 (Moscow) by Robert Kaplan, the colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Both economists are eligible to vote on the interest rate hike at the session to be held on June 15.

    The above events are of great importance as a whole; however no common vector and non transparent data can have major impact on the quotations for the currencies and raw material within 24 h.


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