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    NFP data should surprise

    The main event of the day will  be the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data – an official report on employment from the Labor Department for the month of April, as well as revised data for March. After the March report registered the lowest growth in the number of jobs since 2013, by only 126 thousand, market’s interest towards today’s publication is simply colossal.

    The consensus forecast suggests growth of employment by 228 K in April and decline in unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.4%. But, in my opinion, the NFP report may turn out surprisingly better than expected. Besides, March data may also be revised up significantly.

    These assumptions are based on recent jobless claims statistics:

    • The week of 19 to 25 April the number of continuing jobless claims dropped to its lowest since 2000.
    • The week of 26 April to 2 May the same record was registered in initial claims.
    • The week of 26 April to 2 May this record was also set by the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims.

    On the back of such strong statistics disappointing report in March looks like an abnormality, which should be balanced out is April.

    Employment component of the US services PMI by ISM says in favor of my expectations of better-than-consensus Non-Farm payrolls results (service sector employs the most of the American workers). According to RBC calculations, the index result at 56.5 suggests employment growth within the forecast (228K). However, the index came in at 56.7, which gives reasons to expect better data.

    During the NFP release they usually suggest to exit the trades. Nevertheless, if you decide to stay in the game, I wouldn’t bet against the US dollar today.

     

    Dear traders, please post your comments to our forecasts and share your own opinion. Your ideas can be very helpful for the newcomers in the forex market. Thank you!

    The main event of the day will  be the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data – an official report on employment from the Labor Department for the month of April, as well as revised data for March. After the March report registered the lowest growth in the number of jobs since 2013, by only 126 thousand, market’s interest towards today’s publication is simply colossal.

    The consensus forecast suggests growth of employment by 228 K in April and decline in unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.4%. But, in my opinion, the NFP report may turn out surprisingly better than expected. Besides, March data may also be revised up significantly.

    These assumptions are based on recent jobless claims statistics:

    • The week of 19 to 25 April the number of continuing jobless claims dropped to its lowest since 2000.
    • The week of 26 April to 2 May the same record was registered in initial claims.
    • The week of 26 April to 2 May this record was also set by the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims.

    On the back of such strong statistics disappointing report in March looks like an abnormality, which should be balanced out is April.

    Employment component of the US services PMI by ISM says in favor of my expectations of better-than-consensus Non-Farm payrolls results (service sector employs the most of the American workers). According to RBC calculations, the index result at 56.5 suggests employment growth within the forecast (228K). However, the index came in at 56.7, which gives reasons to expect better data.

    During the NFP release they usually suggest to exit the trades. Nevertheless, if you decide to stay in the game, I wouldn’t bet against the US dollar today.

     

    Dear traders, please post your comments to our forecasts and share your own opinion. Your ideas can be very helpful for the newcomers in the forex market. Thank you!


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