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    Brief notes on the leatest news for the Euro area

    I hereby present you my brief notes on some of the recent news for the Euro area, that caught my attention last week.

    News #1: retail sales growth in the E-19 has slowed

    March retail sales data confirmed correction in the Eurozone’s consumer sector, which had been earlier hinted by the consumer confidence data. Retail sales growth rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in the first month of spring vs. 2.8% y/y registered in January and February. Thus, the indicator continued to correct from December levels of 3.2% y/y, which were the highest since 2005, and returned to the range of 0-2%, within which it had been locked up for a year from November 2013 to November 2014 inclusive, (see. Chart 1).

    1

    Turns out that retail sales outperformed consumer confidence index. Both indicators developed positive trends in 2013-2014, which at the end of 2014 – beginning of 2015 took both gauges to the post-crisis highs. However, retail sales growth began to decline in January and consumer confidence only in April (see. Chart 2).

    2

    From a technical point of view, the retail trade indicator has approached its trend line (red line in Chart 1). We can now hope for a bounce up and growth towards new highs.

    Новость #2: Italy’s GDP growth estimate has been revised up 

    One after economic outlooks of the euro-area countries for this year are being revised up. It’s now Italy’s turn – the third largest economic system of the region. The National Institute for Statistics (Istat) raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2015 from 0.5% to 0.7% y/y last week. This, of course, is not the 1.1% predicted amid optimism by Italian OECD experts in May, but still … The Euro area prospects in general, as well as for individual economies are now assessed more positively than at the end of 2014.

     

    Dear traders, please post your comments to our forecasts and share your own opinion. Your ideas can be very helpful for the newcomers in the forex market. Thank you!

    I hereby present you my brief notes on some of the recent news for the Euro area, that caught my attention last week.

    News #1: retail sales growth in the E-19 has slowed

    March retail sales data confirmed correction in the Eurozone’s consumer sector, which had been earlier hinted by the consumer confidence data. Retail sales growth rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in the first month of spring vs. 2.8% y/y registered in January and February. Thus, the indicator continued to correct from December levels of 3.2% y/y, which were the highest since 2005, and returned to the range of 0-2%, within which it had been locked up for a year from November 2013 to November 2014 inclusive, (see. Chart 1).

    1

    Turns out that retail sales outperformed consumer confidence index. Both indicators developed positive trends in 2013-2014, which at the end of 2014 – beginning of 2015 took both gauges to the post-crisis highs. However, retail sales growth began to decline in January and consumer confidence only in April (see. Chart 2).

    2

    From a technical point of view, the retail trade indicator has approached its trend line (red line in Chart 1). We can now hope for a bounce up and growth towards new highs.

    Новость #2: Italy’s GDP growth estimate has been revised up 

    One after economic outlooks of the euro-area countries for this year are being revised up. It’s now Italy’s turn – the third largest economic system of the region. The National Institute for Statistics (Istat) raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2015 from 0.5% to 0.7% y/y last week. This, of course, is not the 1.1% predicted amid optimism by Italian OECD experts in May, but still … The Euro area prospects in general, as well as for individual economies are now assessed more positively than at the end of 2014.

     

    Dear traders, please post your comments to our forecasts and share your own opinion. Your ideas can be very helpful for the newcomers in the forex market. Thank you!


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