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The US GDP: incorrect correction?

Let me remind you: according to preliminary data, the US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year amounted to only 0.2%. Many economists expect the final data to be even weaker and reflect the decline in the three-month period. The half of the second quarter is already behind and it didn’t give reasons for optimism either – judging by the reports, sudden acceleration in economic growth has never occurred.

On the back of such statistics the market seem to no longer expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates at the upcoming meeting in June. Market players have decided that the chances of the “hawks” to win in the current situation are practically zero. But all is not that so simple …

Three experts of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), together with the local director of the Economic Research center unexpectedly said that in fact the pace of the US economic growth in the first quarter were about nine times higher than stated by the US Department of Commerce in the preliminary report. In their economic bulletin experts from San Francisco state, that more accurate correction for seasonal variations suggests that the US GDP growth in the first quarter was not 0.2%, but 1.8%.

Whether these calculations are correct, it remains to be seen. We’ll be waiting for the revised data from the Department of Commerce to find out if it considered the remarks by the colleagues from California seriously.

 

Dear traders, please post your comments to our forecasts and share your own opinion. Your ideas can be very helpful for the newcomers in the forex market. Thank you!

Let me remind you: according to preliminary data, the US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year amounted to only 0.2%. Many economists expect the final data to be even weaker and reflect the decline in the three-month period. The half of the second quarter is already behind and it didn’t give reasons for optimism either – judging by the reports, sudden acceleration in economic growth has never occurred.

On the back of such statistics the market seem to no longer expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates at the upcoming meeting in June. Market players have decided that the chances of the “hawks” to win in the current situation are practically zero. But all is not that so simple …

Three experts of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), together with the local director of the Economic Research center unexpectedly said that in fact the pace of the US economic growth in the first quarter were about nine times higher than stated by the US Department of Commerce in the preliminary report. In their economic bulletin experts from San Francisco state, that more accurate correction for seasonal variations suggests that the US GDP growth in the first quarter was not 0.2%, but 1.8%.

Whether these calculations are correct, it remains to be seen. We’ll be waiting for the revised data from the Department of Commerce to find out if it considered the remarks by the colleagues from California seriously.

 

Dear traders, please post your comments to our forecasts and share your own opinion. Your ideas can be very helpful for the newcomers in the forex market. Thank you!



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