The American economy is trucking along quite nicely according to the FED and FOMC meeting minutes out today. This for the majority of us should not come as any surprise, as I have recently been talking up the economy and so have many other market commentators. Inflation is looking slightly up as well at present, and this bodes well for the possibility of a rate rise. Many were expecting September to be the golden moment, but at present I am aiming for December, and we may not even see the FED act until January.
The USDCAD was looking very interesting today as it continued to struggle with resistance at 1.2784. For the most part it was no surprise to see the Canadian dollar so weak, as it was hit hard by building permits slipping to -14.5% m/m. Additionally weakness in oil prices again has cast a shadow across the Canadian economy as it looks like we may see further weakness in the Canadian export economy. I for one though will be watching for bearish movements here, as 1.2684 is likely to be the bearish signal many are looking for later on in the week if we do see further slips lower.
The FTSE failed to break and hold above resistance today at 6417. Despite this many were upbeat about the economy as the government proposed a strong budget which looked to cut down the deficit heavily. The GBP may have had other ideas, but equities did try and rally. The falls themselves at this stage struggle to be contained as European equity markets continue to weigh on global equity markets in the long run. Certainly, I am worried that Greek contagion is a very real threat and the market is as well, hence the current bearish falls we are seeing.
Despite the interesting news out of the US markets, and the UK economy, the Australian economy continues to hit the spot lights. Economic data due out shortly on the Australian employment rate is expected to show a lift higher, and in addition to this we also have Chinese data due out as well; with many expecting a slight lift in Chinese CPI data. Despite all of this it's the perfect storm to see the AUDUSD slip lower on the charts past support at 0.7349. The RBA certainly wants to see further falls at this stage, and all things point to the possibility of a double whammy unless Chinese CPI holds up in the face of stagnate growth in the energy sector.
The other key thing to take note of is the Chinese stock situation in China, which has so far lead the market slightly a stray. Yes it will have a global impact, but one also has to remember that Chinese companies are heavily invested in by the ruling party; the communist party. So it's unlikely they would allow a complete crash of the stock system, which in turn would derail their current plans for growth in the Chinese economy. And despite all of this they still have the cash to hold it up for a very long time if need be.
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