The market might be watching Greece, but global fears are no longer about Greece for the moment, but are instead focused on the USA as retail sales which came in much worse than expected. Market expectations had originally been for 0.3%, but instead it was -0.3%, which sent the USD bulls into a bit of a spin as they looked to unwind and sell-off positions that looked unlikely to hold up in the long run.
Certainly many will be hoping that this week's core CPI data will be much better than expected, and may even prompt some comments from the FED about how resilient the US economy actually is. But in the short term there are a few worries that could be apparent and lead to selling of the US dollar.
The S&P 500 saw a strong rally despite all of this on the back of weak global threats (aka Greece). As it rushed up to 2105 before finding resistance and looking to pull back. Despite this I am still expecting further rallies in equities, especially if Greece finally subsides in the short term and lets the markets find their previous bullish form.
The Pound was much stronger than anyone expected tonight as it rallied even despite weak CPI data which many had not expected. CPI y/y came in flat at 0.0% compared to the 0.1% that was expected, certainly this was a negative result but the market excluded it for the most part, especially as weaker data weighed more heavily on the GBPUSD. While the GBPUSD has seen a strong rally, it has touched on the trend line in play at present. It will be interesting to see if we see a bullish push through here, or if in fact we see a solid rejection from it. Certainly 1.5647 is looking like a very solid level of resistance at present, and we could see pressure here, but if we see a failure look to see the bears take control.
Oil surprised myself and the market today as it saw a strong rally to touch 53.25 before looking slightly bearish.
Many will be looking at oil markets and wondering if further momentum can be sustained after the Iran nuclear deal today. Which has surprised many who expected it not to actually come through, but when it comes to middle eastern policy - the enemy of my enemy is my friend; and in this case this may just be case. Either way oil has hit resistance at 53.84, I am looking for a more bearish market to take hold, as Iran is expected to flood the market with cheap oil in order to prop its economy which is in a rather dilapidated state.
Silver is the last thing I will touch on and it's worth a look as it looks to drift lower to support at 15.185 on the charts. Many expect to see a strong rally from silver on the back of positive economic data but at present it is looking to be dragged lower by gold. It's possible we may see a bounce of support at 15.008 as the market is still uncertain on the direction of a precious metal such as silver.
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