Oil has so far been a stellar mover in the markets as it has been consistently dragged lower by the bears in the market at present. Many have long been expecting the bulls to take control and bring it back up to OPEC levels of $100 a barrel, but that is not the case and with the coming tide of oil from Iran, we should expect further bearish sentiment.
For the most part global growth is a massive determent in the futures process and when looking at oil it's hard to see if there is actually the growth there; especially if china continues to slow further. So with Iran looking to turn on the taps and release a stockpile of 50 million barrels, we could quickly see further drops in oil prices. I am now looking as a result of this to see a push lower to 44.33 on the charts which will provide some form of solid support. Until we touch this mark it's likely we will see further bearish pressure on the charts.
The Euro got a decent kick into gear today as German IFO business climate was much better than expected and as the heads of the Troika headed to Athens to flesh out the business side of things. A welcome boost to the Euro which has seen serious volatility in the face of uncertainty in recent times. Resistance levels though are looking strong and we could see some very strong pressure around 1.1140, and I would not be surprised to see a further push higher to the next level of resistance given how well the EURUSD has held up.
S&P bulls are also looking a little deflated as of late (much like oil) as the index has dropped nearly 80 points in total as of late. With support at 2046 looking very ominous at this stage, it's unlikely we could see a hold up on the charts unless we see some positive data; and I'm not talking the core durable goods orders that came in stronger than expected earlier today at 0.8% m/m. With the weakness in the equity markets I would be taking a strong look at the upcoming consumer sentiment data due out at this stage, as a positive release here could lead to strong buying of US equities and the US dollar across the board. It would for the most part by positive overall for all global equity indexes in reality.
The NZDUSD has been up to it's old tricks as well in the marketplace, as it continues to look at possible higher highs or at least flirting with resistance at 0.6610. For the most part all attempts to climb higher have been rebuffed, but it looks like the falls we have seen on the charts have taken something of a pause. I am now focused on how things pan out for the NZDUSD, as we have a realistic possibility of some bullish sentiment returning to the market for the commodity currencies after such strong drops. While data is also quite low I expect that a push upwards to 0.6715 on the charts is a real threat for market bears who seem to have lost momentum.
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