The New Zealand dollar took a bit of a slide in trading earlier, as concern over the Chinese economy continued to weigh on the mind of Graeme Wheeler the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor. Now this seems of no surprise given wheelers conservative mindset, but it's also worth taking note that commodity prices are looking to stabilise and we have even seen milk auction prices rebound over the last few auctions. Despite the somewhat positive view, it looks likely that the New Zealand economy is likely to see further easing in the form of rate cuts and we should expect some cutting going into the next few months from the RBNZ.
Looking at the charts, it has got quite interesting in that the NZDUSD has clawed its way back up the chart, but at the same time it has struggled to breakthrough strong resistance at 0.6711. This resistance was further confirmed when the NZDUSD broke of its recent attempts to push through and slid on the back of the RBNZ comments this morning. On the H4 we can see that it has broken through the 20 MA after almost a week of strong bullish movements, as a result I am less bullish and now starting to lean more towards the bearish side. The recent test of support as well today at 0.6615 was surprising that it rejected, however, if we do see a jump lower we could see further pushes to at least 0.6508 which has been a minor sticking point in the past.
Silver has also had a remarkable bullish run as of late, as commodity markets are starting to look for an actual bottom in the market, and size up the opportunity of bringing back the bulls to take control. The recent push up to 16.00 by silver shows that there is positive sentiment out there for commodities despite what has recent been said in the paper, and with the mothballing of suppliers globally we could certainly see traders become more bullish for silver in the long run. H4 shows a triangle forming so at present we are seeing strong consolidation, and with higher lows looking much larger than the current retractions at support, we could certainly see strong pressure on the 16.00 price level by traders to see if volatility and movement have come back into the lagging metal market.
Oil prices have also picked up strongly in the short term which has been quite nice for oil bulls. The recent jump in price has at times seemed a little volatile, but for the most part many had expected a recovery at some point as US shale started to suffer - if it ever does. Market volatility has so far been quite good for trading, and dynamic levels at 47.19 are looking very interesting from a trading perspective as traders are using this level as an entry and exit point given all the volatility at present. However, despite the recent run on the charts I would be surprised to see a major bullish run on the charts, given that very little oil production has been cut so far, and countries such as Saudi Arabia seem in it for the long haul.
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