The Australian dollar is the talk of the town at present after a light fluster of data earlier in the trading week showed that manufacturing (surprisingly) lifted to 52.5 compared to the previous months reading of 50.2. This slight lift has so far been viewed as relatively positive, but the real news is in the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement due out shortly which is set to have a large impact on AUD pairs in general, as many are looking at this statement as a key element in the possibility of a rate cut, or alternatively if the RBA could possibly be positioning itself for a hike in the future, as it has been a mixed bag from then as of late.
The AUDUSD is a key target for the RBA monetary policy statement due out today, and previous statements have generally looked to jawbone the pair lower. There is very much a high chance that this could be the case given the recent bounce in the AUDUSD and the fact the RBA is looking at the economy very closely and starting to worry - especially with the recent capex data which showed a significant drop on the back of a fall in commodities. Currently the AUDUSD has rebounded up the charts but support levels at 0.7195 and 0.7105 are very real targets for traders looking at lower lows in today's market movements.
With the drop in commodities oil markets are certainly looking very attractive. The recent push higher has been religiously taken apart by bears in the market and any attempt to force it any higher has led to some very serious pressure. While recent data may have shown a dip in supply and also a drop in the number of oil rigs, there is still the case of genuine over supply in the market and the fact Iran is poised to come online soon when it comes to production, and increase it ever more in an effort to bolster the country's economy after decades of sanctions.
For myself and oil markets the real levels are the ones lower and support at 40.37 is looking all the more realistic given the recent drops, any further than this and I would be looking for historical lows at 38.92. But, oil markets have never liked to dip below $40.00 a barrel and we may see bulls look to strike around these key levels.
Lastly, with the strength of the USD economy still a bit of a mixed bag gold has taken a dive on the charts as the bulls seem to have all but evaporated. On the downside of the charts we are now looking at historical lows going back to 2009 to find solid support levels and for me 1044 is now looking like a prime candidate for gold. The real question here is if gold can push all the way down to 1000 which would certainly be a dark day for the bulls after the last couple of years of punishment.
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