Sterling bears received ample encouragement during trading on Thursday with the GBPUSD collapsing to a fresh five-year low at 1.4530 as expectations of a UK rate hike in 2016 rapidly diminished following the meek outlook for the domestic and world economies. Sentiment towards the Sterling remains heavily bearish and recent reports around analysts discussing the possibility that the UK pound may be the most overvalued currency in the world have eroded investors’ attraction even further. For the most part of 2015, the tepid wage growth in the UK economy combined with the deterioration of economic data have contributed to the Bank of England’s hesitance to raising UK interest rates and this has left the Sterling vulnerable. With notoriously low levels of inflation providing the Bank of England policy makers with a compelling reason to repeatedly push back UK interest rate expectations, the Sterling may remain heavily depressed and open to further losses.
The GBPUSD, currently under intense pressure, remains fundamentally bearish from the BoE’s hesitance to commit to raising UK rates and this may offer a short term interest rate differential between the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, ultimately providing an opportunity for sellers to attack.
From a technical standpoint, the candlesticks are trading below both the daily 20 and 200 SMA, while the MACD also trades to the downside. A solid daily close below 1.4600 should encourage sellers to send prices lower towards 1.4500.
Later today all attention may be shifted towards the anticipated NFP release and if expectations are exceeded, then investors may be provided with the confidence that there could still be a possibility for the FOMC to raise interest rates once more before the end of the current quarter.
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