Global markets were struggling today as middle eastern equity markets saw strong selling on the back of Iran beginning to enter the oil market and promising to further increase the glut in oil markets. While Iran has every right to sell its oil in the current market environment, and it has every intention to do so. The middle east is now hoping that things will stabilise, but it certainly feels a long way off with a stronger USD also adding further pressure on oil markets.
On the charts 29.17 continues to act as resistance and a push through today was quickly crushed when the bears came racing back into the market. Further pressure is likely given the fact that the USD continues to gain strength and is still looking like the only currency to lift rates. For support the hard target for many bears will be 24.96, but for now people will be wondering if prices can be sustained at this levels - as it does seem unlikely.
Silver is looking every more prevalent on the market as traders are squeezing it further; as a lack of direction and volatility add pressure on the precious metal. Silver has been caught out by a strong USD but at the same time global risks have spurned on the wild fluctuations we have seen between 14.356 - 13.653. For silver the big news this week will be out of the US with Core CPI to be reported on, which should give a strong indication for the future of the inflation rate, something that is likely to be heavily impacted by the recent drops in energy prices.
However, for now the pressure is on the 50 day Moving Average as it acts as dynamic resistance pushing the market ever lower on the charts. This in turn has formed a tight pennant pattern on the shorter time frames causing traders to look accumulate positions and trying to position themselves for a break out from the triangle at present. For myself the downside of commodities has been heavy in recent times and this weakness could heavily influence movements and a push down to support at 13.653 is something I will be watching for, and also the resulting movement once it touches.
Lastly, Chinese GDP data is due out tonight and as usual we can expect the markets to move sharply as China has been a large worry for many with its slowing growth and lack of appetite for commodities, which it had previously. This of course will put heavy pressure on the Australian dollar which is all the more susceptible to Chinese market movements. Large movements today have so far been quashed, and the market is clearly positioning itself for more bad news out of China. It will be certainly interesting to see the effect across the commodities when the news breaks, but for many the AUDUSD will be of the most interest.
Targeting lower lows and support can be found at 0.6755 and at this stage it's looking ever more likely we will see pressure on this key level. The question will however be: how low can the AUDUSD go as it continues to find itself in dire straits with fiscal problems and falling commodity prices adding more pressure.
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