Oil (WTI) continues to find itself under pressure on the global markets, and today as per usual, was no exception - as it dipped further into the red on the back of strengthening in the USD, as investors globally looked for safety amid fears of a slowdown in growth in Asia. This has been widely talked about in the past with China looking all the more weaker, but the pressure today was all about finding new levels to target and the push through to $27.00 a barrel is still looking ever more stronger.
For me the previous support levels around $24.00 still remain a key target and the market will be looking to see if this level provokes a response from the market, which leads to some sort of reaction that could at least bring about equilibrium. However, for the most part weaker oil prices look likely to continue to hang around and it would surprise me to see any large jump back up the charts in the near future. I would even go so far as to say $100.00 barrels of oil could be a number of years away for the global economy as Asia looks to slow down and the renewable sector continues to pick up pace.
For the NZDUSD it continues to be a case of a dead cat bounce, as it shifts away from the bullish trend and continues on a much heavier bearish trend. For the most part this has been lead by markets looking to be more risk averse and we can expect commodity currencies such as the AUDUSD and USDCAD to suffer in the wake of this.
NZDUSD bears are still very much a factor though and falls lower certainly expected for the NZDUSD with support looking very much a strong case at 0.6315. With the weaker milk prices and weakening economy in New Zealand it could certainly be a case of how low can we go, and the most likely scenario could be a push down to the 60 cent level which has been a key target for traders in the past.
Lastly the S&P 500 has been falling as of late, but the pace is certainly picking up and the bears are for once starting to look in control. Previous pull backs on the charts have been treated as exactly that, but with the global uncertainty it's hard to tell if we are seeing a bearish trend starting to form or a very large pullback. Recent forecasts from the IMF have scaled back global growth which is of no surprise given the markets reactions.
Support at 1802 is looking all the more foreboding as the market will likely look for a strong retest if we see weaker data coming out - this is in the face of record low employment but with low inflation as well. All of which is putting pressure on equity markets, but nontheless when it comes to lower lows and there are plenty for the S&P the next level down is 1754 and the market will certainly want to test this level if we see a breakdown at 1802
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