The Australian dollar has seen some serious unwinding in the previous days as it continues to climb up the charts on a wave of risk appetite. It comes at a treacherous time though, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to have its cash rate statement out in a few hours and this will be a big market mover. Current market predictions are for no movement of the 2.00% cash rate, and I am inclined to agree at this point given the RBA's previous stance on been slowing to react. The key here though is how the market will likely react to the monetary statement which is due out shortly after, and I am certainly expecting a very cautious RBA, which will be very weary of the commodity market as well as the slowdown in China.
So far the AUDUSD has managed to climb the charts and find itself under pressure as the 50 day moving average has acted as dynamic support. This is no surprise given how nicely markets have been playing of these levels, but it was also combined with strong resistance at 0.7119 so the market has certainly felt this one move and looked to halt. If the RBA is upbeat then a push upwards to 0.7194 is likely to be the case and could lead to some serious bullish pressure for the AUDUSD which has is starting to look like it could run very easily. If we see weaker news then a breakdown to 0.7022 is very much on the cards and traders will be looking to watch these two key levels.
Oil has been surprisingly upbeat on the whole as it rose on the charts on the back of a weaker USD as markets looked to unwind. For me the market response of a strong bearish candle bar is a strong signal that the bears are still very much in charge. Fundamentals have not changed but the market is still looking for a strong bounce, and in this case they got a dead cat bounce as the market has eaten up all the bullish gains. The forecast for this week is for weaker crude levels, but so far US data has been lacklustre and I still feel we are sometime of seeing a bottoming of the market, which could dip even lower into the $20.00 barrel region.
With the recent touch of resistance at 34.12 and lower highs recorded over the last few days candles it looks likely the bears will take control. The next level of support can be found at 29.81 and it's likely we could see some real pressure here. As ever, it's worth nothing that we could easily push back into lower lows from 2004 and the market still has the appetite for further lows if Iran looks to push capacity to its limits.
Lastly, gold continues to rise on the charts as the markets look for some safety at the moment, something that seems a little overeager at this given stage. It's worth noting that silver has not moved in line with gold so the correlation between the two will have a correction at some point.
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