Oil continues to be one of the big market movers and many players in the market are now calling for the upside to continue when it comes to the rock bottom prices in play. There has been numerous reports issued as of late, but the general consensus is that at $30.00 a barrel oil is still very much affordable when it comes to pulling it out of the ground for the majority of global producers. With production curtailing and capital expenditure even lower than before, many oil companies are positioning themselves for the long game of just pumping as much as they can and enduring the storm that has erupted. This storm is likely to feel further pressure with Iran coming back into the fray in an effort to bolster its economy at home.
On the charts there is certainly an inkling of the bulls but the question is if they can break free of the shackles of the bears influence which has been quite strong. For the moment the 20 day moving average is the key level here, and traders might be looking to either make a push here or bounce off it and look for lower lows again. A strong push through is likely to find heavy resistance at 32.15 and we could also see strong pushback here and further falls, as in my mind there is nothing currently enabling momentum to travel any higher unless we saw strong USD weakness.
The Aussie dollar continues to be having a struggle on the charts, but global risk has fuelled an appetite for safe fixed interest and the Australian dollar is very much in demand, but remains incredibly volatile at present. Today should be no different as the RBA monetary policy minutes are due to be released and many are expecting that we will see further talking of an easing bias. The market is however slightly more upbeat from the recent trade balance data from China which showed that China might not be the paper tiger than many thought it was.
For the AUDUSD it continues to find strong support at 0.7105 and the market is forever hungry at the moment when it comes to risk appetite in a struggling global economy. Any possible falls lower are likely to find strong dynamic support on the bullish trend line which has formed of the two large candle wicks that formed over the previous week, for me this level is likely to be very hard to beat unless we see some sort of strong fundamental movement. For resistance 0.7215 is likely to be the key level the market will look to move towards if the bulls continue to hold strong in the market environment.
Lastly, gold has been looking very volatile as of late and the recent play of the bullish trend line shows that the market is still very much playing by technical's. The next level of support down is likely to be found at 1184 and we could see traders stop unwinding positions and look to take a bullish stance yet again if global uncertainty persists.
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