The Australian economy continues to go from woe to woe and the unemployment figures released today certainly stress the case that there is more hurt on the horizon as unemployment lifted from 5.8% to 6.0%, which constitutes a significant increase for the Australian economy. The market has taken this with a grain of salt as it was expected that the Australian economy would suffer with the global slowdown and especially with the fall in productivity in China which has had a large impact globally. For me this will send a clear signal to the Reserve Bank of Australia that there is a need to act rather than stand back and watch. This was also further compounded by the recent Chinese CPI data which came in at 1.8% y/y showing that China continues to disappoint when it comes to global expectations.
On the charts this has translated into a slight dip, and many are expecting further dips. I personally expect to see the 50 day moving average begin to feel more pressure and be more tested in the long run as it continues to act as dynamic support in the market. Also the long term bullish trend line has so far stood up to pressure, but the market will be looking to weakness here and I anticpate that it may struggle in the long run given the weak economic data we have seen. When it comes to key support levels 0.7105 and 0.7022 continue to be the two key levels the market is targetting when it comes to drifting lower.
Oil markets were once again a dominating feature in trading today as crude oil invetories came in at 2.15M barrels. This still counts as a surplus for US reserves and many are expecting that over the long run this will be a reoccurring theme until supply picks up in Asia, or alternatively until we see oil rig closures in the US market. Either way for the oil markets opportunity is clearly abound in the short term where volatility continues to be an underlying theme as the fundamentals still don't make any sense when it comes to choosing a direction on the charts.
After the recent failure to breakthrough resistance at 32.15 it's looking more and more likely that we will see a fall on the charts back into the upper 20's rage. I still also feel that the bottom of the market is genuinely at 24.71 where support is likely to meet the bears head on when it comes to finding some momentum again. Additionally, the 50 day and 20 day moving average continue to act as dynamic resistance, so from a bullish perspective we could certainly see some large movements after oil touches 24.71
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