The NZDUSD was one of the big movers from the market opening as it continues to provide plenty of volatility to traders in the market. This is a surprise for myself as given the recent economic conditions in the New Zealand economy a bullish move did not seem like a certainty. The coming week is not ripe for economic data like the previous and markets will be focused on the ANZ business confidence data coming up, which is expected to be relatively stable, if not slightly downbeat. The main push factor here will most likely be the US economy for the NZDUSD as it continues to be one of the major movers and with the upcoming non-farm payroll you can always expect some very large movements in the NZDUSD and all commodity currencies.
Chart wise the NZDUSD has pulled back up the charts, and this looks to be a case of unwinding positions after finding a large level of support at 0.6679 and with the 50 day moving average providing dynamic support as well. The bulls have been left disappointed as the push upwards has met stiff resistance at 0.6732 and this continues to look more and more like a dead cat bounce in the short term. The recent one hour candle also shows a rejection on a second attempt here and certainly it would seem that markets are reluctant to give up any momentum at present.
Oil (WTI) continues to be a dark horse in the market place as it looked to break higher on the charts recently, but pulled back and is so far looking to range heavily. Long time traders of oil will know that when it does range that it can be slow going, however when it gains momentum the pay-offs can be rather large. The large crude oil inventory reading last week however did provide a damper for oil markets as the surplus came in at 9.36M, overall this was quite a large reading and the market reacted accordingly. Additionally recent USD weakness has helped push oil back up the charts, but the dollar bulls are itching for a second round and this could easily play into the oil markets, especially with Yellen set to speak this Tuesday.
Looking at oil from a technical perspective, as mentioned there is the ranging we are seeing at present as support continues to play a big part of the picture at 38.21. This level has had a number of attempts now to push through, but the market firmly believes at present that some sort of equilibrium exists and are acting accordingly. Resistance at 40.01 however is keeping everything contained at present and hence the ranging in oil markets. I still believe that bullish pressure is inevitable with the current prices in the market, and that with the reduction in supply that is happening at present we will see a push higher on the charts.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.