The NZDUSD got a surprise boost today from not only the FOMC meeting, but also recent GDP data which came in positive compared to many analysts expectations. Forecasters had expected a drop on last month's reading of 0.9% to around 0.5% today, but the resulting 0.7% reading was a big boost and saw the NZD jump accordingly. This was led in part by the construction sector and health sector as well, but manufacturing dipped. There was also an interesting note from statistics NZ which detailed the fact that when you take into account New Zealand's rising population GDP only grew by around 0.1%. Obviously this is not ideal but the jump higher to 2.8% y/y is a positive for an economy which for the most part had been looking sluggish. Not even the Finance minister attempting to talk down the NZD earlier in the day could make much of an impact after the GDP result and it almost seemed poorly timed to make such comments.
On the charts the bulls are looking to wrestle control from the bears, but there are headwinds abound as Australian data is due out in the next few hours and will likely have a large impact on the NZDUSD as a whole. Looking at NZDUSD movements higher we have seen long wicks showing resistance to any movements higher, but the market is looking on track to hit resistance at 0.7163. For me the key with the NZDUSD will be on the technical patterns in the H1 area as the 20 hour moving average is currently acting as dynamic support and resistance when fundamentals are not in play, so traders will be looking to play of this. If we do however see a drop from the upcoming Australian data, then I would anticipate that we would see a push down to support at 0.6961 as the bears wrestle control and look to apply pressure again.
Gold is currently in a very interesting place after a climb up the charts on the back of economic uncertainty and weakness in the US economy and after today's FOMC meeting it's no surprise that it has extended that little bit more as a result. While the FED expects to hike interest rates twice more in 2016 the market is having other ideas at present after the recent weak non-farm payroll data. The only plus side has so far been the retail sector which saw a modest lift helping to prop up the consumption sector of the economy.
Resistance at 1296 has so far been a cornerstone for gold traders and held back any further advances, but with the recent return of the bull market for gold it will be interesting to see if there is a strong rejection or if gold looks to jump higher. If we see the market close above this level I would expect to see the bulls look to push further on gold prices, especially if we see further weakness in the US economy and weaker talk from the FED.
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