In this report, we review the recent price action of some major commodity currencies along with Gold , Silver and Oil technical outlook.
Beginning with Gold:
The yellow metal did an attempt to overtake the weekly resistance of 1308$ per ounce but failed as we have seen a big profit taking around this level.
From a technical standpoint, the med-term trend has turned bullish and as far as 1200 psychological support continue to support prices, the yellow metal is likely to extend gains towards 1320$ per ounce in the next weeks.
In the other side, traders should focus on 1277 level in the downside as it represents the bullish pivot in the near-term and only a daily close below it may call for a larger correction before the bullish trend resume.
Silver rallied strongly on April as prices managed to overtake 16.30 weekly resistance, printing a fresh high for this year at 18.00$ psychological barrier.
During last month, the pair has fallen into a correction wave that retraced 50% of the entire rally seen from 13.60 low and we have seen a strong bounce today, which confirm that Silver is ready for another extension higher towards $18 psychological barrier. In addition, we have seen a break above 17.30 hourly resistance, which reinforces this positive outlook.
Therefore, we expect further gains in the coming days and as far as 15.80 low is in place, a re-test of 18.00 mark is likely. Finally, we can see that Silver is outperforming gold this year and we believe that this metal has a big potential in the upside in case safe havens demand increases in the next weeks.
Oil remain steady in the near-term as prices continue to respect the higher lows structure that began from $26 low.
Recently, prices turned lower around the 61.8% retracement of the recent drop from 62.60 peak which is located near 50.80 weekly resistance, which trigerred a larger correction to the downside. However, this drop was short-lived as Oil found strong demand at 45.90 level, which represents a key fibonacci support level.
As of now, we believe that prices may stabilize around 49.40 resistance leval and traders should focus on this level in the coming hours as a daily close above it will confirm another extension towards 50$ psychological level.
Finally, Oil may remain bullish over the med-term above 46$ per barrel, while a weekly close below this level may bring the selling pressure again.
The pair recovered strongly after reaching the 61.8% retracement of the recovery that began from 0.7145 low, which stands at 0.7280 level.
As of now, the short-term trend is flat and we prefer to wait for a clear break above 0.7445 peak or below 0.7280 support to confirm the next directional move in this pair.
From a med-term view, AUD/USD is likely to remain under pressure below 0.7500 psychological barrier while a break above it should bring the bullishness back.
USD/CAD rallied to as high as 1.3080 level before to retreat sharply as this level represents the intersection with the daily bearish trend line drawn from 1.3194 peak. We have seen a strong reaction to the downside and prices ended the day by showing a bearish shooting star candle.
However, as far as 1.2815 low is in place another extension to the upside remain possible and only a daily close below this level will bring the bearishness back.
In the near-term, 1.2760 level is the key support level while in the upside, 1.2970 is seen as a strong barrier in this pair.
The Kiwi did a re-test of 0.6960 hourly support and managed to bounce from it as bulls keep pushing prices higher. The pair showed a potential double bottom formation near this hourly support, which keeps the daily bullish trend intact.
Actually, the pair remain positive; however, prices should close above 0.7080 level on a daily basis to confirm that the current correction has ended.
Therefore, the bullish outlook in this pair still valid and only a daily close below 0.6890 support will weaken this view.
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