The British pound traded in a choppy manner since early June as Brexit referendum sent volatility level to highest in 7-year.
From a technical standpoint, the trend turned bullish, and the lower highs/ lower lows structure from 1.3820 low remain intact as bulls managed to protect 1.4000 psychological level to create a double bottom formation around this level. Moreover, the pair broke above 1.4360 pivot level and rallied to as high as 1.4760 area, which represents the monthly resistance in this pair.
As of now, the outlook is positive ahead of the Brexit vote as far as the U.K currency holds its near-term support at 1.4430 level and a break above 1.4760 peak may send prices towards 1.4875-1.4940 resistance zone before to see some selling pressure.
After two months of consecutive decline, the Aussie managed to recover strongly during the Beginning of this month as prices found strong demand from the 61.8% golden ratio of the recent rally from 0.6820 low.
Therefore, the pair is likely to trade higher in the following days as far as 0.7140 low is in place and for the time being, the focus should be on 0.7500 psychological barrier as a monthly close above it may expose 0.7725 area.
In the flipside, a breakdown below 0.7140 support should cancel this potential recovery and may put the Aussie under pressure again with 0.6980 area as a next level of interest.
The Euro is trading sideways for the last several days as prices continue to fight inside a wide range located between 1.0820 in the downside and 1.1715 peak in the upside.
Looking at the recent price action, prices failed to break above the monthly resistance of 1.1700 and made a lower high near the 1.1600 handle, which put the potential breakout on hold.
Technically, the bullish reversal scenario remain valid as far as prices keep trading above 1.0820 low and in the near-term, 1.1130 area is key for the future price action in this pair. In the other side, 1.1420 is seen as a strong barrier and only a weekly close above it may trigger another rally in the direction of 1.1600 zone in the next weeks. Otherwise, prices may continue to trade sideways to lower.
The pair broke below 105.00 psychological support to continue its decline in the direction of 104.00/103.50 monthly support zone, which stands near the 61.8% retracement of the entire bullish cycle that began from 90.88 level.
The Japanese Yen soared to highest since August 2014 fueled by increasing demand for safe asset havens. For the time being, we expect prices to stabilize around the current levels as momentum indicators began to slow down due to the oversold conditions, unless we see the Brexit becomes real, which is likely to be the catalyst for another leg lower in this pair towards the 100.00 major support.
Finally, the trend remain strongly bearish in this pair and only a break above 107.90 peak will cancel this negative view.
The Kiwi surpassed its monthly resistance located around 0.6900 level, which confirmed a bullish reversal in the med-term.
Looking at the recent price action, the pair succeeded to break above the recent resistance of 0.7050, which cleared the path for a re-test of 0.7150 weekly resistance. In addition, we have seen a golden cross in the daily chart as the 50 daily moving average overtook the 100 Daily moving average and by now, we expect the rally to extends in the direction of 0.7230/60 monthly resistance zone.
Therefore, the view remain positive regarding the kiwi and only a weekly close below 0.6890 level is likely to postpone the expected move.
Gold found strong support from 1200 psychological support and did another attempt to overtake 1309 weekly resistance but failed as Brexit remain campaign took the lead recently, which weighed on safe havens demand.
However, the med-term trend has turned bullish in the yellow metal, and we are seeing the recent drop as corrective only. Actually, 1255-1248 zone is seen as the weekly support zone in gold and we may see buyers in the coming days from these levels. Meanwhile, it is important to note that $1235 per ounce represents the weekly bullish pivot and should not be taken out, in order for gold to preserve its recent strength.
Finally, the outlook remain positive in the yellow metal as prices continue to preserve the higher lows structure that began from 1180 low.
USD/CAD remain under pressure as far as 1.3200 peak is in place, and only a break above this level will call for a larger correction in the coming weeks.
Looking at the monthly trend, the pair broke below 1.2820 historical support, which provided an additional negative signal in this pair. Since then, USD/CAD has begun a recovery cycle from 1.2450 low before to fail below 1.3200 crucial resistance, which keeps the med-term outlook unchanged and a re-test of 1.2450 support zone is likely during the next weeks.
To conclude, the outlook remains strongly negative as bears continue to dominate this pair.
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