The Euro had a pause for concern in the evening trading session as the coalition talks in Germany fell apart leading to a political crisis in Germany. This now presents the toughest challenge Angela Merkel has felt in over 12 years of being at the top, however, she seems somewhat composed and is keen to send the parties back to the polls in order to get a majority government. So far though polls have predicted that anti immigrant parties are likely to gain more momentum than the traditional centrist parties which have dominated German politics in recent decades. And for Brexit this will certainly put pressure on the British government now that Merkel is currently off dealing with her political crisis, rather than being focused on there's. For some time many had expected her to get involved and sort out the crisis, but that's certainly not going to be the case and £40 billion bill the UK is offering to settle the bill is being put to the table.
The British governments ability to settle the bills is likely to be a game of brinkmanship and the EU does not have to blink at all. What could well be worth their time is to let it play out internally as right now a number of backbencher Tories are upset over the size of the number and could in theory force a leadership vote. While plausible I do believe that the government is likely to try and push it all through as rapidly as possible in order to get backing from business. Either way the pound is likely to encounter some rough waters over the course of this week as a result.
On the charts the GBPUSD continues to be inching its way higher on the charts, and thus far it's been on the back of some USD weakness which has been apparent. However, the recent moves higher have shown an abrupt weakness in bullish potential and we could see bears come back into the market to tighten things up before breaking out. Resistance levels for the GBPUSD can be found at 1.3256 and 1.3339, but the band in between this is likely to see a lot of action. In the event that markets turned south they would have a tough time battling the 100 day moving average which has been acting as dynamic support, and also support levels at 1.3130 and 1.3059. A breakthrough of these support levels could send the pound tumbling though.
The EURUSD is also looking weaker after the political news out today, and for me the focus will be playing of the political news out of Germany going forward. Key resistance levels can be found at 1.1824 and 1.1891. Support levels can also be found at 1.1719 and 1.1621, with the trend looking all the more bearish as of late. Certainly also for the euro the USD weakness will be a primary factor, but so far it' s a mixed bag.
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