The US economy continues to be a mix bag for traders as time and time again political headlines dominate the market landscape. More recently, has been of course the recent firing of Tillerson from the Trump administration, this of course comes on the back of the spy drama and Russians in the UK, but leaves big questions around the current administration. Adding further pressure to it all has been rumours today that the Trump administration will look to put tariffs on over 100 goods that china supplies to the US totalling roughly $60 billion USD. The markets thus far have not viewed this positively as globalisation and free-trade have come to dominate the trading landscape in recent times, and as a result equity markets continue to lose faith when it comes to returns, leading to exits.
The S&P 500 has been a favourite for investors in recent times, and today's action saw it bounce after hitting resistance at 2807. To me this shows that the bulls are not confident enough in the recent acts of the administration and there could be potential falls further down the line. If the bears do indeed take hold, then support can be found at 2743, 2698 and 2666 on the charts. The 100 day moving average is also key to driving any bullish support, so this level will be the battleground for the bulls and bears when it comes to this highly traded future.
The New Zealand economy has got off to a slow start for the week as the current account balance came in worse than expected at -2.77B (-2.54B). This however, is not a large concern given that the New Zealand economy posted a -4.68B loss previously. So while a large loss in a cyclical indicator, it bodes well for the future that it has indeed dropped down, rather than remaining elevated and high like the last reading. I would expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to not stress to much over it, but instead focus on global politics at present which continue to carry a large amount of risk for the global economy. Especially with the US economy looking to impose tariffs on trading partners who are threat to their industries.
The NZDUSD which is the major pair to trade, has been looking bullish as of late on the charts, as global risk sentiment has been upbeat for the most part. However, the bearish news on the current account balance has sent things lower again. So far resistance at 0.7324 is holding back further advances up the chart. If the NZDUSD can move past this key level and get above it, then 0.7431 is likely to be the next key target for bullish traders. In the event that things start to head lower I would expect to see the bears targeting key levels at 0.7255, 0.7171 and 0.7054. But for now risk appetite is remaining elevated which is sending strong signals to the bears.
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