Markets were looking a little unsettled today after yesterdays bullish rise in equity markets. Many had expected that potentially today would see equity bulls look to retake further ground after the recent loses but they were hampered by economic data, as US consumer confidence missed expectations coming in at 127.7 (131 exp). Many had expected a slight rise, as the US economy has been booming and unemployment continues be at record levels, but perhaps the recent political turmoil's are weighing down on the American people. For the most part traders will be eagerly watching tomorrows US GDP results and of course US home sales, to try and gauge the strength of the economy over the last quarter, and for home sales to see if they're improving in line with analysts expectations. Any strong bearish signals could send the equity markets into a bit of a spin, but it's definitely worth watching as right now volatility is very high.
For me the S&P 500 continues to be the one to watch, right now the technical's are very strong and the market is not keen to just lurch forward like previously in some sort of bullish trance. The traders have woken up and are very keen to make the most of it! So far resistance at 2664 is holding back further movements higher after today's disappointing result. In the event of the bears looking to take hold we could see a push down to 2628, but weak economic news could see the all important 200 day moving average retested. In the event we see a push upwards I would be watching the 2693 resistance level and the 100 day moving average, as it sets up a strong technical challenge for the bulls in the present climate. All in all US equities and the S&P 500 continue to be for me the one to watch, especially when playing the technical's as of late.
Spare a thought for the Australian dollar, as lately it has lost the spring in its step. It continues to struggle against the USD as of late, even when it's weaker. So far things are not looking up either economically, and with no economic news this week things could be a little tough as technical traders and USD bulls take hold of things.
On the chart it's clear to see that we're sitting in a bearish wedge, further down the line we could see a potential breakout to the upside. However, for the time being the feeling is quite bearish and resistance today at 0.7760 continues to look quite intimidating for any bulls in the market. When you throw in a 100 day moving average which has been quite tough then things seem almost insurmountable for any bulls in the market. If the bears do get their way then a fall to 0.7546 looks on the cards, but I would also watch the walls of the wedge for dynamic support of course. Any breakthrough and close through the wedge wall should be treated as a very bearish signal.
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