The EUR/USD weakened but stayed in the month range
Last Friday the Euro zone and the Greece finance ministers took the third attempt for the last 10 days to align the assistance extension program to Greece. According to Berlin, Athens concessions can be more dangerous than the Greece exit from the Eurozone as they can give power to the left populist parties in the countries such as Spain and Portugal as well as to the northern EU countries euro-skeptics.
The current program expires on February 28th. In fact, Greece is in a desperate situation and it has no other choice but to accept what the Euro group offers. If Greece accepts the support the euro can be supported as well as this act shall reduce the country’s fear from the monetary unit exit.
We recommend to buy with the first target of 1.1440-1.1460. If this target is overcome, longs will be relevant for the target of 1.1520-1.1540.
The UK shall publish the retail sales data. Forecasts are contradictory: it is expected the annual increase and the indicator decrease for a month. If the report turns out to be more positive, the pound will be able to regain the position lost earlier as the retail sector growth can intensify expectations, concerning the inflationary pressure increase and therefore push on the idea that the MPC will be forced to start raising interest rates in the short term.
We recommend to short with the target of 1.5260-1.5280 within the pound in the Forex market. The second target is the level of 1.5200-1.5220.
The Japanese yen is still very agile in the Forex market. The yen actively responds to comments and statistics, but also quickly returned to the normal market channels. The Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda said that it was unlikely that the current mitigation measures could cause some problems in the bond market. The regulator, of course, has a wide range of tools for the target inflation rate implementation of 2% and this target must be taken.
Be advise to sell with the first target of 117.95-118.15. Shall the price reach the first target it might go to the level of 116.95-117.15.