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Divergence between UK and US

The economic calendar is busy today with UK GDP data this morning being a focus and one of the reasons for the recent strength in GBPUSD. There’s been a shift in the paradigm as US data has been showing signs of an economy running out of puff, whilst UK data continues to show a recovery that maintains its momentum, so with UK GDP released today and US GDP tomorrow we will continue to see evidence of this divergence. The UK’s Q1 number is due to come in at 0.5%, with Y on Y at 2.6% whilst US Q1 is expected at 0.4% and the annualised figure 1.1%. Whilst GDP is a backward looking figure, even the more forward looking surveys have been favouring sterling and this has allowed GBPUSD to continue its upward move with the pair trading at 1.5240 this morning. The next short term levels to watch to the upside are 1.5300/45 and 1.5400 and these could be tested sooner than thought following the breakout to the upside of the major downward trend.

Later today there’s US consumer confidence data which is expected to rise from 101.3 to 101.6. Eyes also remain on Greece where there’s a belief that a deal will be struck ahead of critical repayment dates in May which has kept EURUSD supported for now, trading at 1.0865 this morning.

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