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Trump, Clinton and markets

The second of the US presidential TV debate overnight was all about personality rather than policy, the result of which was, according to the experts, a pretty even race. For what is worth, the verdict in markets seemed to be pretty much the same, looking at the performance of risk assets and the Mexican peso, which has become something of a barometer of Trump, although statistically not a significant one if one looks over the past few weeks. Yes, it opened firmer after the allegation that emerged early on in the weekend, but traded sideways during most of the debate itself. The roller-coaster looks set to continue for the coming four weeks. Elsewhere, sterling has had a very stable Asian session, in contrast to Friday’s ‘flash crash’. The underlying tone remains weaker though, cable back below the 1.24 level and EURGBP also seeing a push above the 0.90 level.

For the coming week, there are no major scheduled events that are set to rock the boat for markets, so familiar themes are likely to dominate. For now, these are the above mentioned US presidential race, together with the continued ebb and flow of the US interest rate story for December, where on balance a rate hike is still anticipated. Sterling should be calmer now that the party conference season is over, but the rhetoric there has started the ball rolling towards are hard exit. We’ve also seen the Chinese yuan weaker further after the long weekend break, which USDCNY back above the 6.70 level. For today, there are no major data releases on the calendar, although the meeting of the Eurogroup could bring some further headlines surrounding Brexit.

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