Markets and polling are looking for a Clinton win today, but the margin in the polling is not sufficient to give any sense of comfort. This is more so after the experience of the Brexit vote back in June, where the polls were suggesting a win for the ‘remain’ side and the vote went the other way. My thinking on potential reaction in both scenarios can be see here. It’s clear from yesterday and trading in Asia today that markets have reversed the bearishness seen over the past two weeks. The dollar is higher, safe havens are lower, gold is lower and measures of volatility have also declined. This gives you an idea of the moves we’ll see on a Clinton win, which is the scenario that will provide less volatility that a Trump win.
For today, there are no data releases or events that will distract from the main again. We see UK idustrial production data at 09:30 GMT, with BoE Chief Economist Haldane speaking later today at 17:00 GMT.