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Forex: Thursday Morning Report – US Dollar Weakness

The USD is weaker against all the majors today, continuing the pressure from yesterday. End of year liquidity is light and many of the themes from earlier in the month are reversing. The dollar is currently at session lows with the NZDUSD seeing some of the biggest gains, up 0.47% to 0.70910.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator (Nov) was released yesterday close to previous at 1.67, with the prior number of 1.54. Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations (Dec) was released, coming in at 52.0. The previous number was 40.7. USDCHF found support at 0.988868 and went higher to 0.99022 but declined as USD trading took over later in the morning, finishing the day at 0.98616.

US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) came in at 0.2% from a forecast of -0.5% with a prior reading of 3.5%. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Nov) data was also released with the number coming in at 0.6%. Last month, this figure was 1.2%. EURUSD made a high of 1.19099 but then moved lower to 1.18851 after the data.

Japanese Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) was out overnight, up 1.9% from a 0.0% forecast and 0.0% prior. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) was in at 2.2% v 1.2% expected and -0.2% previously. Large Retailers Sales (Nov) was 1.4% v -0.6% expected from -0.7% prior. USDJPY tested resistance at 113.2630 as the data was released but sold off soon after continuing to decline through the session.

EURUSD is up 0.39% overnight, trading around 1.19328.

USDJPY is down -0.48% in early session trading at around 112.797.

GBPUSD is up 0.32% trading around 1.34378.

USDCHF is down -0.43% this morning trading around 0.98210.

Gold is up 0.29% early morning trading at around $1,290.85.

WTI is up 0.29%, trading around $59.80.

Major data releases for today:

At 09:00 GMT ECB Economic Bulletin will be released.

At 13:30 GMT US Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 15) 1.900M expected from 1.932M prior. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 22) expected to be 240K with a previous reading of 245K. USD pairs could potentially see movement in price action as a result of data missing forecasts.

At 14:45 GMT Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Dec) with a consensus of 62.0. The prior number was 63.9.

At 16:00 GMT EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Dec 22) expected draw of -3.970M v the previous reading of -6.495M. This data release was delayed due to holidays on Monday for Christmas. Oil traders will watch for divergence from expected data and trends forming in the market.


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