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FxPro Forex Analysis: Australian Trade Balance Misses Expectations


Australian Trade Balance for November came in very wide of the mark at -628M v an expected 915M. The previous reading was revised down to -302M from 105M. This was the second month in a row where there was a substantial miss to the downside. AUDUSD moved lower from 0.78679 to 0.78429.

Eurozone Markit Services PMI (Dec) data was out Wednesday morning, coming in at 56.6 v an expected number of 56.5, with the previous reading coming in at 56.5. Markit PMI Composite (Dec) was also due out at this time, coming in at 58.1 v an expected number of 58.0, with a prior of 58.0. EURUSD moved higher from 1.20247 after the release of the data.

UK Markit Services PMI (Dec) was 54.2 v 53.8 expected, with a prior number of 53.8. Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Dec) came in as expected at £4.9B, with a previous reading of £4.8B. Mortgage Approvals (Nov) was 65.139K v 64.000K expected, from a prior 64.887K. Consumer Credit (Nov) was £1.400B v £1.500B expected, with the prior figure being revised to £1.362B. GPBUSD found support around 1.35400 and moved up to 1.35555.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change jumped to 250K v an expected 190K, and the prior value was revised down to 185K from 190K. USDJPY gapped up to 112.745 from 112.622 on this data release and continued up to 112.838. US Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 22) was 1.914M, from an expected number of 1.925M, with the prior of 1.943M revised to 1.951M. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 29) was 250K v an expected 240K, with a previous read of 245K revised to 247K.

US Markit PMI Composite (Dec) was 54.1 v an expected 53.7, from a prior of 53.0. Markit Services PMI (Dec) was 53.7 from an expected 52.4, with a previous reading of 52.4. Stocks rallied higher after these data points, with the Dow Jones Index moving higher from 25000.

US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Dec 29) was released with a headline number of -7.419M v -5.182M expected, from a previous -4.609M. This data release was delayed due to New Year’s festivities. WTI Oil rallied back to $62.00 after the news.

EURUSD is unchanged overnight, trading around 1.20628.

USDJPY is up 0.32% in the early session trading at around 113.099.

GBPUSD is up 0.11% to trade around 1.35635.

AUDUSD is down -0.28% this morning, trading around 0.78386.

Gold is down -0.33% in early morning trading at around $1,317.75.

WTI is down -0.16%, trading around $61.82.

Major data releases for today:

At 10.00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Prices Index – Core (YoY) (Dec) is expected at 1.0% from a previous 0.9%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected at 1.4% from a prior 1.5%. EUR pairs may see price movement if the data released varies from the consensus.

At 13:15 GMT, US Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec) is expected at 190K v a prior 228K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in December. The Unemployment Rate (Dec) is expected unchanged at 4.1%. This measures the percentage of the total workforce unemployed and actively seeking employment during December. USD crosses could experience volatility around this data release.

At 13:30 GMT, Canadian Unemployment Rate (Dec) is expected at 6.0% from a prior of 5.9%. Net Change in Employment (Dec) is expected to be 1.0K with a previous read of 79.5K. CAD crosses can make sudden moves to test support and resistance after the data points are released.

At 15:00 GMT, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) is expected at 57.6 from a prior of 57.4. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) is expected at 1.1% with a previous reading of -0.1%. This data can move USD pairs upon its release.

At 18.00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts will be released, with a headline number from last week of 747. WTI Oil can become volatile around this data release and will be in traders’ minds when trading resumes on Monday.

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