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FxPro Forex Analysis: Canadian Data Centre Stage


Canadian Jobs reports came in strongly for the second month in a row, far exceeding expectations and leading to strong moves in CAD crosses. Unemployment is at a low of 5.7% and focus is shifting today towards the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey at 15:30 GMT. Traders will look for any indicators that could influence a change in monetary policy with regards to rate hikes, in view of the strong labour market, during the next BOC monetary policy meeting on the 17th of January.

Eurozone Consumer Prices Index – Core (YoY) (Dec) was out at 1.1% v an expected 1.0%, from a previous 0.9% that was revised up to 1.1%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 1.4%, as expected, from a prior 1.5%. EURUSD bottomed at 1.20404 and rallied to 1.20550 after the data.

US Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec) was a miss to the downside when they were released. 148K new jobs were created from an expected 190K, compared to 228K previous that was revised up to 252K. The Unemployment Rate (Dec) was as expected at 4.1%, unchanged from the prior reading. EURUSD rose from 1.20445 to 1.20825 but then sold back down to 1.20203 after the data release.

Canadian Unemployment Rate (Dec) was 5.7% v an expected 6.0%, from a prior of 5.9%. Net Change in Employment (Dec) was 78.6K v an expected 1.0K, with a previous read of 79.5K. USDCAD started to selloff before the release from 1.25118. This move lower accelerated once the data was out and price bottomed at 1.23542.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) was in at 55.9 v an expected 57.6, from a prior of 57.4. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) were 1.3% v an expected 1.1%, with a previous reading of -0.1%, which was revised up to 0.4%. USDJPY fell from 113.253 to 113.080 upon the release.

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts were released with a headline number of 742 from last week’s 747. WTI Oil extended its gains from $61.45 to $61.57 after the event.

EURUSD is down -0.09% overnight, trading around 1.20162.

USDJPY is up 0.18% in early session trading at around 113.216.

GBPUSD is down -0.09% to trade around 1.35507.

USDCAD is down -0.06%, trading around 1.24043.

AUDUSD is down -0.18% this morning, trading around 0.78446.

Gold is unchanged in early morning trading at around $1,318.40.

WTI is down -0.08%, trading around $61.51.

Major data releases for today:

At 08.00 GMT, Swiss Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected unchanged at 0.8%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) will also be released, with a prior value of 1.5%. Swiss Franc pairs may see price movement if the data released varies from the consensus.

At 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Business Climate (Dec) will be released, the previous was 1.49. Also at this time, Consumer Confidence (Dec) is expected to be unchanged at 0.5. Industrial Confidence (Dec) was 8.2 previously. Services Sentiment (Dec) was 16.3 previously. Economic Sentiment Indicator (Dec) is expected to be 115.0 v 114.6 prior. EUR crosses could experience volatility around this data release.

At 15:30 GMT, Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey is expected to be released. CAD crosses could make sudden moves to test support and resistance after the data points are released.

At 20:00 GMT, US Consumer Credit Change (Nov) is expected at $18.75B from a prior of $20.52B. This data shows the amount of money that individuals borrowed and can move USD pairs upon its release.

Major data releases for this week:

Wednesday, 09:30 GMT, Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) is expected at 0.3% with a prior of 0.1%.

Friday, 13:30 GMT, US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) is expected at 0.4% from a previous read of 0.8%. US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected to come in unchanged at 2.2%.

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