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FxPro Forex Analysis: PMI Data Released Today in Europe and the US

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Today we will have PMI data coming in from various economies around the world. Japan has already reported, with Europe next up, followed by the US in the afternoon. Japanese PMI data is close to a four-year high, showing good economic health in the manufacturing sector and the wider economy. Purchasing Managers Index measures the relative level of business conditions based on employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories in the manufacturing sector, giving an advance indicator of economic health.

Private Oil Stocks data was released yesterday afternoon, showing a surprise build in inventories. Crude inventories were up 4.754M. The price for WTI moved slightly lower on the data but has since recovered and is trading around $64.47

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Dec) was released on Tuesday and missed by a considerable amount, coming in at £0.979B despite being expected to come in at £4.400B, from £8.118B previously, which was revised down to £6.645B. EURGBP moved higher from 0.87686 to 0.87863 following this data release.

Eurozone ZEW Survey – Current Situation (Jan) was 31.8 v an expected 29.7, with a previous reading of 29.0. German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Jan) was 20.4 v an expected 17.8, with a previous reading of 17.4. German ZEW Survey – Current Situation (Jan) was 95.2 v an expected 89.8, from 89.3 prior. EURUSD fell from 1.22527 to 1.22227 in the time following the release of this data.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan) was 1.3 v an expected 0.6, from 0.5 previously. EUR pairs and Eurozone assets can be influenced by this data release.

Japanese Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Dec) was released at ¥86.6B v an expected ¥261.7B, from ¥364.1B previously, which was revised down to ¥289.6B. Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Dec) was ¥359.0B v an expected ¥520.0B, with a prior of ¥113.4B. Exports (YoY) (Dec) were 9.3% against an expected 10.1%, from 16.2% previously. Imports (YoY) (Dec) were 14.9% against an expected 12.3%, with a prior reading of 17.2%. USDJPY fell from 110.293 as a result of this data.

Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was released coming in at 54.4 v 54.3 expected, with a prior reading of 54.0. Leading Economic Index was 108.3 against an expected 107.7, from 108.6 previously. Coincident Index was 117.9 v a consensus of 117.1, from 118.1 prior. USDJPY continued to sell off to a low of 109.800 as these data points were made public.

EURUSD is up 0.09% overnight, trading around 1.23092.

USDJPY is down -0.25% in early session trading at around 110.030.

GBPUSD is up 0.24% to trade around 1.40285.

USDCAD is down -0.04%, trading around 1.24146.

Gold is up 0.13% in early morning trading at around $1,343.06.

WTI is unchanged this morning, trading around $64.47.

Major data releases for today:

At 08:30 GMT, German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) is expected to come in at 63.0 from 63.3 previously. Markit Services PMI (Jan) is expected at 55.6 v 55.8 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Jan) is expected to be 58.6 from 58.9 prior. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.

At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) is expected to come in at 60.3 from 60.6 previously. Markit Services PMI (Jan) is expected at 56.4 v 56.6 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Jan) is expected to be 57.9 from 58.1 prior. EUR crosses could see a spike in volatility should actual released data differ from the expected consensus.

At 09:30 GMT, UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Nov) is expected unchanged at 2.3%. Claimant Count Change (Dec) is expected at 5.4K from a previous reading of 5.9K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Nov) is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%. Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Nov) is also expected to be unchanged at 2.5%. Claimant Count Rate (Dec) is expected to be released, with a previous value of 2.3%. GBP crosses could be influenced by this data release.

At 14:00 GMT, US Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov) is expected to be 0.3%, from 0.5% previously.

At 14:45 GMT, US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) is expected to come in at 55.0, from 55.1 previously. Markit Services PMI (Jan) is expected at 54.0 v 53.7 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Jan) is expected to be 53.5, from 54.1 prior. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data.

At 15:30 GMT, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Jan 19) will be released. The previous reading was -1.600M. The expected reading this time is in the region of -6.861M. A build on stocks would be bullish for WTI prices.


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