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FxPro Forex Analysis: Key Economic Data Events – Week 05/02 – 09/02

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Monday 05th February at 01.45am GMT – China Caixin services PMI (January), which is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy. The previously published number for December was 53.9. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are Chinese and other Asian Equity markets and CNY currency crosses.

Monday 05th February at 09.00am GMT – EU Markit Services PMI (January) is released by the Markit Economics and is an indicator of the economic situation in the Euro Zone services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction. Market expectations are for an unchanged reading of 57.6. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are EU Equities and EUR currency crosses.

Monday 05th February at 14.45 GMT – US Markit Services PMI (January) is released by Markit Economics and captures business conditions in the services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the services PMI is an important indicator of the overall economic condition in US. A result above 50 is bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish. Market expectations are for a reading of 53.5 from a previous 53.3. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are US Equities and USD currency crosses.

Tuesday 06th February at 03.30am GMT – RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is seen as negative, or bearish. Market expectations are for 1.48% from a previous 1.50%. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are Australian Equities and AUD currency crosses.

Tuesday 06th February at 13.30 GMT – US Trade Balance (December) is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau and is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for US exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD. Market expectations are for $-51.7B from a previous $-50.5B. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are US Equities and USD currency crosses.

Wednesday 07th February at 15.30 GMT – EIA Crude Oil Inventories. This figure shows the weekly change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivatives and is released by the Energy Information Administration. Expectations for the week ending 02nd February show a drawdown of -1.330M barrels from a previous 6.776M barrels. This report normally impacts WTI Crude, Brent Crude futures and also some commodity currencies like CAD.

Wednesday 07th February at 20.00 GMT – RBNZ Rate and Monetary policy statement. The New Zealand Reserve Bank publishes its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Each Monetary Policy Statement must set out: how the Reserve Bank proposes to achieve its targets; how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years; and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last Monetary Policy Statement. The current rate is at 1.75%. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are New Zealand Equities and NZD currency crosses.

Thursday 08th February at 02.00am GMT – China Exports, Imports, Trade Balance are released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. Trade Balance shows the balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY. The previously published number was 361.98B.

Thursday 08th February at 12.00 GMT – BOE Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Summary is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. Market expectations are for an unchanged reading of 0.5%. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are UK Equities and GBP currency crosses.

Friday 09th February at 01.30am GMT – China CPI (January). The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services. The result is a comprehensive summary of the results extracted from the urban consumer price index and rural consumer price index. The purchasing power of the CNY is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A substantial consumer price index increase would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, potentially prompting The People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY. The previous number was 1.8%.

Friday 09th February at 09.30am GMT- UK Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Trade Balance. The trade balance released by the National Statistics is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP. If a steady demand in exchange for UK exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the GBP. Market expectations are for an unchanged reading of £2.8B. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are UK Equities and GBP currency crosses.

Friday 09th February at 13.30 GMT – Canada Unemployment Rate is released by the Statistics Canada and represents the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to a weaker Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish. Market expectations are for an unchanged reading of 5.7%. Net Change in employment (December) is forecast at 44.1K from a previous 78.6K. Markets that could be impacted by this data release are Canada Equities and CAD currency crosses.



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