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FxPro Forex Analysis: USD Strength Leads Currencies to Break Key Levels

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Japanese GDP fell to -0.2% from 0.0% expected for the quarterly Q1 figure and -0.6% from 0.0% expected for the yearly figure. This drop was forecasted, with an expectation for a recovery to higher numbers going forward into Q2. USDJPY didn’t react much and is still trading in the same range around 110.275, after breaking above 110.000 yesterday. FX, in general, was stable overnight after some key levels were broken yesterday, with EURUSD falling back under 1.19000 and GBPUSD falling under 1.35000 on USD strength. Gold took a tumble under strong support at 1300.00, triggering bearish technical patterns. Equity markets also fell yesterday, with the US 500 dropping to test support at 2700.00.

UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) came in at 2.9% as expected, from 2.8% previously. Claimant Count Change (Apr) was 31.2K against an expected 7.5K, from a previous reading of 11.6K, which was revised up to 15.7K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Apr) was as expected, unchanged at 4.2%. Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) was as expected at 2.6%, from 2.8% previously. Claimant Count Rate (Mar) was 2.5% against 2.4% previously. Wage growth was expected to continue to tick up after stabilizing at 2.5% and moving up in February but failed to do so, falling below last month’s reading of 2.8%. The unemployment rate is at multi-decade lows, which is when wage growth would normally be higher as competition to attract workers takes hold. The BOE will study wage data for any indication of a change, in case they need to change their hawkish tone. GBPUSD moved higher from 1.35276 to 1.35582 after this data release.

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q1) was as expected, unchanged at 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q1) was also as expected, unchanged at 2.5%. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Mar) was released at 3.0% against a consensus of 3.7%, from a prior of 2.9%, which was revised down to 2.6%. Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Mar) was 0.5% against an expected 0.6%, from -0.8% previously, which was revised down to -0.9%. The monthly figure dipped to -1.0% in February but rebounded last month, with a much stronger rebound this time, marginally missing expectations. EURUSD moved higher from 1.19160 to 1.19290 after this data release, but then sold off later in the day.

US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) were as expected at 0.3%, from 0.6% previously, which was revised up to 0.8%. Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr) were 0.3% against an expected 0.5%, from 0.2% prior, which was revised up to 0.4%. Retail Sales Control Group (Apr) came in as expected at 0.4%, from 0.4% prior, which was revised up to 0.5%. The sales slipped after last month’s beat, which was revised higher yesterday, with the current readings coming in as expected. USDJPY broke higher from 109.913 to reach a high for the day of 110.341 after this data release.

EURUSD is up 0.03% overnight, trading around 1.18418.

USDJPY is down -0.08% in early session trading at around 110.253.

GBPUSD is up 0.08% this morning, trading around 1.35131.

Gold is up 0.33% in early morning trading at around $1,294.40.

WTI is up 0.20% this morning, trading around $71.22.



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