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FxPro Forex Analysis: Oil stabilizes after falling 4% on Friday and 1.6% yesterday

The market turmoil continues as Oil reached a six week low yesterday after backing away from strong resistance at $73.00 early last week. The Inventory data on Wednesday, showing an unexpected build of 5.778M, compounded the pressure followed by increases in US Oil Rig counts to 859 on Friday and reports of Saudi Arabia and Russia agreeing to ease output cuts ahead of the next OPEC meeting next month in Vienna. The rumour is that the easing of cuts will add an additional 1 million bps to the market which could see further falls in the price which is currently at $66.77. USDTRY fell to 4.55475 as lower prices would ease inflation worries.


German IFO – Current Assessment (May) was 106.0 against an expected 105.5 from 105.7 previously. IFO – Expectations (May) was 98.5 against an expected 98.5 from 98.7 prior. IFO – Business Climate (May) was 102.2 against an expected 102.0 v 102.1 previously. The data shows a steadying business climate in Germany after the fall in the March data but with a lot of work to do to regain the previous highs. This data cannot be ignored as it surveys 7,000 businesses and is a leading indicator of economic direction. EURUSD moved up from 1.16841 to 1.17285 after the data was released.


US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Apr) were 0.9% against an expected 0.5% from 0.0% previously which was revised up to 0.4%. Durable Goods Orders (Apr) were -1.7% against an expected -1.4%% from 2.6% previously which was revised up to 2.7%. This data series diverged last month with ex-transports missing expectations and the headline data exceeding its consensus. This divergence continued but the data showed a fall in headline data and a rise in ex-transports. EURUSD moved up from 1.16650 to 1.16865 after this data release.


EURUSD is up 0.05% overnight, trading around 1.16297.
USDJPY is down -0.30% in the early session, trading at around 109.081
GBPUSD is up 0.04% this morning trading around 1.33138.
USDCAD is down -0.06% overnight, trading around 1.29859
Gold is up 0.03% in early morning trading at around $1,298.00
WTI is up 0.21% this morning, trading around $66.77

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