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Yield curves predict ‘absolutely nothing’


Fears are rising that a recession looms after a closely watched market metric flashed a warning signal, but one strategist told CNBC the supposed indicator “predicts absolutely nothing.” The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly broke below the 2-year rate on Wednesday stateside. That so-called inverted yield curve has historically been regarded as a precursor to an economic recession. U.S. markets fell following the inversion, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing around 800 points. The rates inverted again in the morning of Asian trading hours on Thursday.

Nevertheless, Viktor Shvets, head of Asian strategy for Macquarie Commodities and Global Markets, brushed off those concerns. “My view has always been that yield curve predicts absolutely nothing,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “What it does tell you (is) that you will have a recession if you don’t do something about it,” Shvets added.

The yield curve inversion, he said, may demonstrate that the global economy is slowing down. That’s because of a lack of liquidity, absence of reflationary momentum and a de-globalization of trade and capital flows, according to Shvets. “If you reverse those elements, then the yield curve will respond very quickly,” the strategist said, adding that, to him, “recession equals policy errors.” Weighing in on concerns that central banks may not have enough fuel in their tanks to make their policy count, Shvets said that notion was “nonsense.”

“It has to be made clear: Central banks never run out of bullets, ever,” he said. “There are so many tools that central banks can bring to bear, (other than) just looking at interest rates. ”

Strategist: Yield curves predict ‘absolutely nothing,’ and central banks ‘never run out of bullets’, CNBC, Aug 15

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