The continuous decrease in the number of initial applications for benefits over the past ten weeks should not inspire a false optimism. Despite the reopening of the economy, a lot of people continue to lose their jobs. The total number of beneficiaries must remain close to 21M over the past three weeks, which is only 4M below peak levels and contrasts sharply with 1.7 million at the beginning of March.
For the most part, recovery in consumption depends on how people find work. Having no job, people cut costs even if they receive checks from Trump and fall under individual state programs, which may even exceed the level of salaries for particular jobs. This was seen last month, when Americans set aside 33% of disposable income, significantly cutting spending despite income jump.
The FxPro Analyst Team