However, do not entirely discard more up-to-date jobless claims data. They once again noted how the economy stalled after the initial rebound. Last week, 1.427 million people applied for initial unemployment benefits insurance. Continued claims counted to 19.29M, compared with 19.231M a week earlier. In both cases, the impulse to improve indicators has noticeably disappeared.
If to rely on data on weekly claims, it is easy to assume that the recovery of jobs in the US has finally stalled in the second half of the month. Moreover, the evaluation of data for NFP occurs in the first half (until June 12). Also, as we noted earlier, it is worth considering that in June the number of jobs was 14.7 million lower than the February peak (-9.6% of the total number of employees), the aggregate hours worked index was less by 10%. The aggregate payrolls index still 7.2% below its peak.
Thus, one should be very careful about market optimism regarding labor market data, since it still looks precarious and far from the norm.
The FxPro Analyst Team