Long term weekly trend is down but the medium term weekly trend has turned higher. I said in my Gold analysis on January 30th: Those looking to add Gold to longer term positions might consider doing so at levels closer to 1200. Yesterday’s low was at 1197 and price rallied strongly thus supporting the analysis. This rally took place at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and very close to the rising trend line. We obviously need to see further buying to prove my case but this far trading in Gold is very much going “to the plan”. The plan being that we should see higher weekly low not far from current levels. Here’s a quote from my recent analysis: Now price is at key support levels and at the upper end of the potential bottoming formation (between 1131 and 1222). It is likely that this will act as a zone from which the price of Gold can launch higher. This view is confirmed if we’ll see a higher weekly low (last week’s candle hints that we might get one) close to the current levels.
Stochastics indicator is still in neutral territory and the nearest support and resistance levels are at 1197.2 and 1216.50 with the 50% Fibonacci level just above at 1219.7. In terms of price formations, we have additional support from the weekly pivot candle from December last year. I would like to see price creating a higher low at levels higher than the low of this pivot candle.
The price of Gold is in a short term downtrend but has now reached the medium term uptrend line. There was a gap open higher today suggesting strong buying below the current price levels. The Fed minutes included wording that the Fed can be patient in raising rates and this caused the price of Gold rally higher from yesterday’s lows. We have a daily resistance level above but the fact that we have a weekly support below should mean that the market work its way through the resistance in not so distant future. The higher low in the Money Flow Index also supports this view. Index was deeply oversold and has since moved higher even though the price of Gold has made a lower low. This is an early sign of momentum reversing and indicates that the price is about to turn. Due to the resistance level just above the current price action we may see further volatility and/or consolidation before Gold can decisively break above it.
Gold, 240 min
In the intraday resolution the price of Gold is trending lower and is at the time of writing just below resistance level. Stochastics is overbought and price is moving sideways at 1216.50 resistance. However, there is no downside momentum at the moment which could well indicate that the market participants see downside being limited. Instead the smaller time frame charts indicate that the buyers are trying to push price higher. The latest low at 1197.20 coincides with the rising weekly trendline and therefore limits the potential in the downside. The next resistance level at approx. 1234 is fairly close to the upper Bollinger Bands and therefore a potential resistance level. We also have a bullish wedge forming in the 4h chart indicating that the sellers are losing ground while buyers are becoming stronger.
Long term: Price action at the levels (that I’ve been looking at as potential turn around area) is giving early indications the idea that the price of Gold has reached an important support area. The Money Flow Index, (an indicator integrating volume into the equation) is suggesting that the turnaround is taking place and the gap opening higher in the daily chart supports the view.
Short term: In the intraday picture the price of Gold is still in a downtrend and has moved close to a resistance level. At the time of writing there is not much downside momentum, which indicates that the market participants perhaps see downside being limited. Traders should follow the 15 min and 60 min charts to see how price react to the current resistance area and trade accordingly.
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Chief Market Analyst
Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.