Main Macro Events This Week
- United States: Data is very light and back-ended to Friday. Highlighting the calendar are January retail sales, trade prices, and February preliminary consumer confidence. Retail sales are expected to inch up 0.1% after a 0.1% December dip, while the ex-auto figure should be unchanged from -0.1% previously. Trade prices are expected to show further weakness with import prices dropping 1.5%, while export prices should slide 0.5%. Consumer sentiment should improve to 93.0 in the preliminary read from the University of Michigan survey, after dipping 0.6 points to 92.0 in January. Other data this week includes the Fed’s LMIC (today), December JOLTS (Tuesday), along with wholesale trade (Tuesday), and the January budget (Wednesday).
Canada: The Canadian calendar is front loaded for a change, following two consecutive weeks of heavy Friday data schedules. We see the duo of starts and permits reports today. Housing starts are expected to rebound to 190.0k in January after plunging to 173.0k in December, with a pick-up in multi-unit starts expected to drive total starts after the category fell 27% in December. Building permit values are seen rising 5.0% m/m in December after the 19.6% drop in November. BoC Deputy Governor Lane (today) speaks at HEC Montreal on “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.” Housing price indexes round out the week, with the new housing price index (Thursday) and the Teranet/National HPI (Friday) scheduled for release. The new housing price index is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in December after the 0.2% gain in November.
Europe: Data releases this week are unlikely to change the outlook as they are too backward looking with the focus on December production and Q4 GDP numbers. Overall production has been hit by the unusually mild weather in the last months of 2015, which held down energy production. But there should be some pick up in December. We see German industrial production (today) bouncing 0.4% m/m (median 0.6%) following the 0.3% November decline, and French production (Wednesday) unchanged versus the 0.9% drop previously. The overall Eurozone IP number (Friday) hence is expected at 0.4% m/m (median same), as a partial rebound from the -0.7% m/m contraction in November. The data calendar also has the final reading of German January CPI (Friday), which is likely to be confirmed at 0.5% y/y (median same), while the release of the final HICP will be delayed because of a change in base year. Germany also releases December Trade data (Tuesday). The Riksbank is expected to leave policy unchanged at -0.35% (Thursday). ECBspeak will be of some interest. Walter and Dijsselbloem speak at a conference (today). Bank of Spain Governor attends a conference in London (Tuesday). Board member Praet give a keynote address on “Lender of Last Resort” (Wednesday).
- United Kingdom: The UK calendar this week is not likely to present anything that will alter the BoE’s new-found dovish track. The BRC retail sales report for January (Tuesday) gets the data agenda rolling, where we expect 0.3% y/y growth in the like-for-like comparison. Trade data for December (also Tuesday) has us anticipating a near underlying trend GBP 10.4 bln deficit in the mercantile figure. Production numbers for December (Wednesday) should see industrial output decline by 0.1% m/m (median unchanged), improving from November’s 0.7% contraction., and rising by 1.0% at the y/y level.
- China: January new yuan loans (Wednesday), seen at CNY 2,000 bln from 597.8 bln in December.
- Japan: In Japan, the December current account reading for November beat the forecasts (1.59T) came in at 1.64T today. January bank loans (today) increased to 2.3% y/y, while January PPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise to -2.9% y/y from -3.4% seen in December. The markets are closed Thursday for National Foundation Day.
- Australia: Australia’s calendar is thin this week. The ANZ job ads report for January (today) and December housing finance (Friday) book-end the week. Housing finance is expected to rise 2.0% m/m in December after the 1.8% gain in November. RBA Governor Stevens appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics (Friday).
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