The US jobs data revealed encouraging upside surprises for the payroll and household employment figures, but substantial weakness in the hours-worked, workweek, and wage figures that lowered our forecasts for the month. The mix reversed the January pattern of weakness in payrolls but strength everywhere else, leaving establishment data for Q1 overall that are still a positive signal for GDP growth on net, and with what is now a sharp five-month upturn in the household data that suggests an emerging return of workers to the labor force alongside a jobless rate that remained at the cycle-low 4.92% for a second consecutive month, and another climb in the participation rate to 62.9%.
EURUSD dipped on better than expected jobs numbers but then found support on a regression channel that it broke out of yesterday. Trading has been mixed after the report was published and without direction. Nearest daily support levels are: 1.0883 and 1.0818 while the nearest resistance levels are at 1.1035 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.1070.
Chief Market Analyst
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