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    MARKET ANALYSIS AND NEWS Eurozone CPI – In line with expectations Market News

    EURUSD, Daily  

    Eurozone March HICP inflation: -0.1% y/y. This was in line with median expectations and up from -0.2% y/y in the previous month. We had been looking for a slightly higher number after yesterday’s 0.3% point jump in the German HICP rate but national data from France and Spain earlier already suggested that steady rates elsewhere would prevent a more pronounced uptick in the overall number. Indeed Italian HICP, published at the same time as the EMU number, actually showed the headline rate falling even further into negative territory. The gap between Eurozone countries is widening again, which is not making the ECB’s task any easier. With the headline rate stuck in negative territory, markets will likely continue to speculate about Draghi’s next steps, although the fact that core inflation actually rose to 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y in February highlights that energy prices, where were down 8.7% y/y in March, remain the main driving factor behind the negative rate.

    The dollar extended Yellen-inspired declines against the euro, which was the chief benefactor of the dynamic, while ebbing back toward lows versus other currencies. This put EUR-USD at a 1.1383 peak after breaching the February high, trading at levels last seen in October.



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