EURAUD, 60 min
Eurozone Apr manufacturing PMI released earlier today revised up to 105.7 from 105.5 reported initially and versus 105.6 in the previous month. German and French PMIs were actually revised slightly down with the final release, but the Italian PMI jumped to 53.9 from 53.5 against expectations for a decline in confidence. Further confirmation then that the Eurozone recovery is continuing but at a very modest pace and with core countries remaining weak. Especially France continues to underperform despite the stellar GDP result for the first quarter.
EURAUD has touched an area of resistance at 1.5060 – 1.5200 that has seen the sellers to emerge in the past. At the same time the daily Stochastics is getting overbought. In the 60 min chart price action is looking bearish as the latest reactionary high is lower than the one before. Therefore the pair testing a 0.236 Fibonacci level that coincides with the 30 period SMA and lower Bollinger Bands has now a high significance. If buyers emerge now there is still a chance that price could move higher. However, the recent lower high makes it less likely that the support will hold. If the level holds we could see a new attempt on today’s highs but if the support breaks we have a bearish intraday setup. If price moves below 0.236 Fibonacci level (at 1.5039) on a closing basis I will be looking for sell signals at or inside my Sell Area of 1.5053 – 1.5096 with Target 1 at 1.4997 – 1.5018 and Target 2 at 1.4910 – 1.4952. Please, remember that you should always manage your risks. Do not trade based on our analysis unless your own analysis agrees with it and you know how to manage your risks professionally. Please, attend the webinars if you have troubles in understanding how you should take advantage of the analysis that we provide.
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Chief Market Analyst
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