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    US PMI held steady while ISM numbers fell


    EURUSD, Daily

    US Markit manufacturing PMI (final) held steady at 50.8 in April compared to the flash reading (lowest since September 2009), but down from the 51.5 final March print. The final PMI output index also held steady at 50.3 in April vs the flash reading, but down from final March 51.2. The final April employment index settled unchanged vs the flash of 50.2, though down from the 52.2 final March print. Overall, not very compelling, though focus will shift to ISM and construction data shortly.

    At the same time US manufacturing ISM fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. The prices index surged to 59.0 in April from 51.5 in March. New orders eroded to 55.8 in April from 58.3 in March. While the pull-back in the total index was slightly more pronounced than anticipated (median was 51.3), the result was largely as-expected.

    US construction spending rose 0.3% in March versus consensus forecasts of a 0.5% gain. February data however, was revised sharply higher to up 1.0% to from -0.5%. The small March miss can be attributed to slower housing starts reported for March.

    EURUSD reacted higher at first but has since retraced some of its gains. The nearest 4h support and resistance levels are at 1.1481 and 1.1534 with the next support at 1.1465 (coincides with 0.236 retracement) and 1.1398. EURUSD reaction after the data could lead to market testing the nearest supports before finding direction again. This price action is taking place outside the upper daily Bollinger bands which could mean going gets tougher for the bulls. At the same time however, there is support in the weekly charts around 1.1460 (weekly highs) and could mean that Euro bears are careful with their short positioning and leave more room for the bulls to bid prices higher.


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    Janne Muta

    Chief Market Analyst


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