Low inflation and expectations of further easing have been pressuring EURUSD. ECB’s Weidmann commented on inflation earlier today saying that expansionary policy currently justified, as low inflation is not just a consequence of low oil prices, but core inflation is also low. In what looked like comments to defend Draghi’s policy stance to the critical German audience, Weidmann said in Frankurt that “given these muted price prospects and expansionary monetary policy is current appropriate”, although he added that “you can have different opinions on the specific design of the unconventional measures”.
EURUSD has been violating support levels since it turned from the 1405 – 1415 resistance level I Identified in June 7th report. Now the pair is oversold as per Stochastics (7.3.3) in the 4h chart and is trying to retrace some of the recent losses. I expect that this rally will be short lived and the market will turn lower after the buying interest fails. I’m seeing a resistance area between 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels (1.1300 – 1.1322) while there is a support level at 1.2200 together with further support at 1.1134. This support is significant and has potential to stop the down move and turn EURUSD higher.
I am therefore looking for sell signals at or inside my Sell Area 1.1304 – 1.1323 with Target 1 at 1.1268 – 1.1280 and Target 2 at 1.1230 – 1.1244. Target 3 is at 1.1135 – 1.1285. For those interested in the potential up move to the Sell Area, I’m seeing support between 1.1250 and 1.1260. Please remember that this is not investment advice and that you should not be trading without proper understanding of risk management.
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Chief Market Analyst
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