Post-UK data gains in the pound were reigned in as the stellar retail sales report for May, which was replete with big up revisions in April data, were offset by a new Brexit poll from Ipso Mori putting the Vote Leave campaign six points in the lead. Seven of the last eight polls have put Leave ahead.
UK retail sales, meanwhile, came in much stronger than expected in official data for May, rising 0.9% m/m and by 6.0%y/y from upwardly revised April figures of 1.9% m/m (originally 1.3%) and 5.2% (originally 4.3%). The median forecasts had been for just 0.1% m/m and 3.7% y/y growth. The data kicks into touch the idea that the run-in to the Brexit vote would have impeded retail activity. Cable, after some oscillations, is presently near the midpoint of the day’s range, at 1.4165 which has itself remained within yesterday’s range. GBPJPY remains south of 148.00 and EURGBP north of 0.7950. Risk remains to the downside given the real chance for the UK voting to leave the EU at next Thursday’s referendum.
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