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    WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS FOR WEEK OF JULY 3RD, 2012

    Since the open on Sunday I have been watching 9 pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, USDJPY, AUDUSD & EURCHF)

    And for the most the all have stayed in a nice channel. With there being a US bank holiday on Wednesday July 4th, along with several major news announcements do towards the end of the week, this has added to a sideways market. (Thursday: GBP-Official Bank Rate; EUR-Minimum Bid Rate; USD-ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change, Unemployment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and for Friday: CHF-CPI; GBP-PPI Input; CAD-Employment Change & Unemployment Rate; USD-Non-Farm Payroll Change & Unemployment Rate)

    I have decided that with the US holiday and the major news to stand aside on trading till after the holiday and IF I do trade it will only be the major news announcements. This is tricky week with the anticipation of the major news announcements still yet to come and when they do how closely the following each other. So prudence/caution is strongly  advised this week.

    All the following analysis’/reviews on the following pairs are based on a 30 minute chart unless otherwise noted.

    EURUSD:

    Has stayed pretty flat with some breaks both long and short. On the 30 minute chart the200ma’s and 800ma’s are providing a strong floating support for the price and since 07/01/12 at 22:00gmt there has been a barrier at 1.2578 and the other level to watch is 1.2650.

    GBPUSD:

    Based on a 30 minute chart like the EURUSD the GBPUSD has stayed pretty flat and is staying above the 200ma’s and 800ma’s. 1.5666 is Support 0.5 also at this level there is a barrier which my indicator has started on 07/02/12 23:30 at 1.5665 just below S-0.5. The other level to watch is 1.5740

    GBPJPY:

    On the 30 minute chart the GBPJPY has stayed in an erratic channel range since the Sunday open and has tightened up 125.38 which is R-1 and 125.11 which is R-0.5. Both the 200ma’s and the 800ma’s are below the price and have been providing a good floating support

    EURJPY:

    The EURJPY did have nice downward move from the Sunday open to the rollover on Monday. But has tightened up and started channeling. It has now broken and closed above R-0.5, but prior to that it was staying between the Daily Pivot at 100.35 & R-0.5 at 100.65. With R-1 being at 100.94 and pretty much on a whole number I think it will provide a strong resistance. But we do need to be aware of the high 101.39 set on 06/29/12 at 16:00gmt

    AUDUSD:

    Now the AUDUSD has channeled with an ever so slightly upward slope and within the last 3 hours has shown some sign of wanting to continue up. But has stayed between 1.0295 R-1.5 and 1.0280 R-1.0. Since 07/02/12 at 08:30gmt there has been a barrier building up at 1.0244

     

    USDJPY:

    Now the USDJPY has been a little bit more erratic but since the EURO Session and the USD open it has settled down and started channeling between 79.88 R-1.0 and 79.74 R-0.5. I am personally not a big fan of playing the USDJPY but I do keep an eye on it.

    USDCHF:

    The USDCHF did have a nice little upward movement from the Sunday open to before the Monday rollover, at which point it has channeled. Now there is what I consider to be a strong barrier at the 0.9554 area. At this level we have R-0.5, the 200ema, the 800ema & 800sma with the200sma just above the 800ma’s, along with my own indicator having a barrier at 0.9556 which started on 07/01/12 at 22:00gmt

    USDCAD:

    On the 30 minute chart had stayed pretty flat from the Sunday open, but going into the EURO open the USDCAD started a slight downward push but has only moved 30+ pips in the 20+ hours. And is now between R-2.0/1.0130 and R-2.5/1.0117

    EURCHF:

    The eurchf has probably ran the flattest and tightest of these pairs and I believe because of that when it moves we could see a nice strong move. The price has become twisted up with the 200ema, 200sma, 800ema & 800sma along being sandwiched between the Daily Pivot at 1.2013 and S-0.5 at 1.2010. This one has great potential.

    Please note that at each level the price could stall and go in the opposite direction so please use caution when evaluating your entry. I look for what I call a True Close in most cases, and that is 1st the break, then 2nd a candle close and 3rd a confirming candle close on whatever direction and time frame I am watching.

    Please be aware that the INTRADAY trades if taken have the ability of becoming your swing trades. But if for any reason I become uncomfortable with that trade I will close it and take my profit where ever it may be.
    Please note that in many case my entry’s long become my stops Short and my entry’s Short become my Stops Long. And in some case I will extend my stops beyond those levels. So please take that in consideration when placing your trade and lot allocation and money management.
    Please note the Forex market is very fluid and volatile and can and has changed very quickly. So if at any point in the trade I feel uncomfortable with my trade, charts or any other events, I could stand aside not enter or close the trade. Also I as far as take profit goes I feel one should take their profit where ever they are happy at. I am looking for my targets but if for any reason I am either comfortable or uncomfortable I will take my profit.
    All trade entry’s/levels are based on my opinion on what I see on my charts and the indicators that I use for myself and any trades taken should be done with due diligence and that individual assumes full responsibility for his or hers trades.


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