The previous trading day was inactive. Movements were minimal, the lack of news background played its role. Greece remains an irritating factor for euro and pulls the pair down. However, as negotiations continue and they do not fail yet, so European currency still holds its ground.
After inactive trades during previous days of the week, the market has started to wake up. Today at Asian session, Australian dollar has been attacked after publication of the data on unemployment in Australia. The report was weak – unemployment increased, the number of work places decreased. Now everybody is waiting for news from Europe and the U.S.A., which is also able to stimulate trades. What concerns fundamental data of the Eurozone for today – there are final data on inflation and industrial production. Forecasts are contradictory – inflation remains weak and industrial production stabilized at the end of last year. As before, Greece remains the hottest button. Today the EU summit is scheduled, still, serious discussion on this issue is unlikely to take place there. After long hours of hard negotiations on Ukrainian issue in Minsk, Merkel and Hollande will lack strength for Greek issue. So, they will just inform the others about the results of the negotiations. Thus, Greek issue will probably remain pending for some time. Still, success or failure of negotiations in Minsk can also have some influence on the common currency.
For dollar, the report on US retail sales is important today. December was very weak, forecasts for January aren’t optimistic either. We presume that the market will react depending on actually published figures.
Speaking about local news of this day, we’d like to highlight the quarter report on inflation by the Bank of England. Pound can show a strong reaction to its content and to any direction.
The market is still uncertain, nobody has an advantage. Our regular attempt to buy euro during last days came to nothing – the position was closed on stop without loss. At this moment we consider opening of new positions on euro in case of exit from already announced range 1.1270 – 1.1360 to any direction, stops are accordingly on the opposite side of the range.
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